Russian Standard

Russia: Press Freedom Under Threat

2007-05-03T20:21:00.000-05:00

Russia is among the top three nations where press freedom has deteriorated the most over the last five years, reports RFE/RL.

A new report, compiled by the New York-based Committee to Protect Journalists to mark World Press Freedom Day today, found that almost a dozen journalists in Russia have been murdered since 2002. The report focuses on the 10 countries where press freedom has most deteriorated. Russia stands in third place, below Ethiopia and Gambia.

The U.S. State Department also criticized Russian media freedom this week and expressed “grave concern” over the October killing of investigative reporter Anna Politkovskaya.
Read more...

A Nervous Wreck

2007-04-18T17:15:00.000-05:00

The violent crackdown on last weekend's March of the Dissenters points to the increased paranoia of the Russian government elite ahead of the December 2007 parliamentary and the March 2008 presidential elections, according to Moscow Times' columnist Georgy Bovt. The use of excessive force of the security troops and the careful planning of the crackdown show that Kremlin elite is not willing to leave anything to chance.

There is a question of 'why'. Putin's standing remains high, Russian economy is booming and foreign investors keep pouring funds into the Russian stock market. As Sonja Margolina writes in Frankfurter Rundschau (here is the original article in German) "only through a monstrous hall of mirrors could one see in the handful of opposition members without resources and support, anything approaching "orange revolutionaries" or Western-influenced conspirators." She sees the late events as a "symptom of the political crisis that seems to be gripping the Putinesque vertical at the nadir of its un-challenged power."

Kremlin Says Riot Police Overreacted

2007-04-17T22:22:00.000-05:00

A Kremlin spokesman said Tuesday that the beating of demonstrators at opposition rallies in Moscow and St. Petersburg over the weekend was an "overreaction" by riot police who were attempting to ensure "law and order on the streets." Read more...

Moscow March of the Dissenters Demo

2007-04-17T22:02:00.001-05:00

White House Criticizes Russia

2007-04-17T21:30:00.000-05:00

The White House voiced criticism of this weekend's events in Moscow and St. Petersburg. The White House spokeswoman Dana Perino specifically talked about the emerging pattern of excessive force used by the Russian authorities and the crackdown on the freedom of press. Read more here...

However, as the AP article reports "opinion polls rate Putin as Russia’s most popular political figure by far, thanks to newfound political stability and rapid economic growth fueled by high world oil prices. That popularity has cowed mainstream politicians in parliament and allowed Putin to strengthen the Kremlin’s powers."

The Coming Era of Russia's Dark Rider

2007-04-17T21:14:00.000-05:00

Stratfor, the intelligenece consulting company, gives a rather chilling perspective of the recent crackdown on Russian opposition in Moscow and St.Petersburg. According to the writer of the report, Peter Zeihan, the events not only showed that the Russian opposition is isolated and weak but rather that the Kremlin is sending a deliberate message to its critics in Russia and abroad.

Peter Zeihan

Russian opposition members rallied in Moscow's Pushkin Square on April 14. The so-called Dissenters' March was organized by Other Russia, an umbrella group that includes everyone from unrepentant communists and free-market reformers to far-right ultranationalists whose only uniting characteristic is their common opposition to the centralization of power under President Vladimir Putin's administration.

Minutes after the march began, the 2,000 or so protesters found themselves outnumbered more than four to one by security forces. They quickly dispersed the activists, beating and briefly detaining those who sought to break through the riot-control lines. Among those arrested were chess-champion-turned-political-activist Garry Kasparov and Maria Gaidar, the daughter of Russia's first post-Soviet reformist prime minister. Former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov only avoided arrest because his bodyguards helped him to escape. A Reuters crew was permitted to capture the events and disseminate them to the West. A day later, another protest, albeit far smaller, was broken up in a similar way in St. Petersburg, though Kasparov was detained before the protest even began.

What gives? The protests were insignificant in both numerical and political terms. Moreover, with all that is going on in the world right now, the last thing the Putin government needs is to attract negative attention to itself. The answer becomes apparent when one considers Russia's point in its historical cycle and the mounting pressures on Putin personally that have nothing whatsoever to do with "democracy."

The Russian Cycle

At the risk of sounding like a high school social studies teacher (or even George Friedman), history really does run in cycles. Take Europe for example. European history is a chronicle of the rise and fall of its geographic center. As Germany rises, the powers on its periphery buckle under its strength and are forced to pool resources in order to beat back Berlin. As Germany falters, the power vacuum at the middle of the Continent allows the countries on Germany's borders to rise in strength and become major powers themselves.

Since the formation of the first "Germany" in 800, this cycle has set the tempo and tenor of European affairs. A strong Germany means consolidation followed by a catastrophic war; a weak Germany creates a multilateral concert of powers and multistate competition (often involving war, but not on nearly as large a scale). For Europe this cycle of German rise and fall has run its course three times -- the Holy Roman Empire, Imperial Germany, Nazi Germany -- and is only now entering its fourth iteration with the reunified Germany.

Russia's cycle, however, is far less clinical than Europe's. It begins with a national catastrophe. Sometimes it manifests as a result of disastrous internal planning; sometimes it follows a foreign invasion. But always it rips up the existing social order and threatens Russia with chaos and dissolution. The most recent such catastrophe was the Soviet collapse followed by the 1998 financial crisis. Previous disasters include the crushing of Russian forces in World War I and the imposition of the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk; the "Time of Troubles," whose period of internal warfare and conspiracy-laden politics are a testament to the Russian predilection for understatement; and near annihilation under the Mongol occupation.

Out of the horrors of defeat, the Russians search desperately for the second phase of the cycle -- the arrival of a white rider -- and invariably they find one. The white rider rarely encapsulates what Westerners conceive of as a savior -- someone who will bring wealth and freedom. Russian concerns after such calamities are far more basic: they want stability. But by Russian standards, the white rider is a rather optimistic fellow. He truly believes that Russia can recover from its time of trial, once a level of order is restored. So the Russian white rider sets about imposing a sense of consistency and strength, ending the free fall of Russian life. Putin is the current incarnation of Russia's white rider, which puts him in the same category as past leaders such as Vladimir Lenin and, of course, Russia's "Greats": Catherine and Peter.

Contrary to portrayals of him by many in the Western media, Putin is not a hard-nosed autocrat set upon militarization and war. He is from St. Petersburg, Russia's "window on the West," and during the Cold War one of his chief responsibilities was snagging bits of Western technology to send home. He was (and remains) fully cognizant of Russia's weaknesses and ultimately wanted to see Russia integrated as a full-fledged member of the Western family of nations.

He also is pragmatic enough to have realized that his ideal for Russia's future and Russia's actual path are two lines that will not converge. So, since November 2005, Putin has been training two potential replacements: First Deputy Prime Ministers Dmitri Medvedev and Sergei Ivanov. At this point, nearly a year before Russia's next presidential election, determining which one will take over is a matter of pure guesswork. Also unclear is what role, if any, Putin will grab for himself -- up to and including a continuation of his presidency.

The question of who takes over in March 2008 is generating much interest and debate among Kremlinologists. It clearly matters a great deal both politically and economically, though geopolitically the discussion misses the point. The real takeaway is that Russia's current white horse period is coming to an end. Putin's efforts to stabilize Russia have succeeded, but his dreams of Westernizing Russia are dead. The darkness is about to set in.

The Dark Rider

In the third phase of the Russian cycle, the white rider realizes that the challenges ahead are more formidable than he first believed and that his (relative) idealism is more a hindrance than an asset. At this point the white rider gives way to a dark one, someone not burdened by the white rider's goals and predilections, and willing to do what he feels must be done regardless of moral implications. The most famous Russian dark rider in modern times is Josef Stalin, of course, while perhaps the most consuming were the "Vasilys" of the Vasily Period, which led to the greatest civil war in Russian medieval history. In particularly gloomy periods in Russia's past (which is saying something) the white rider himself actually has shed his idealism and become the dark rider. For example, Ivan the IV began his rule by diligently regenerating Russia's fortunes, before degenerating into the psychotic madman better known to history as Ivan the Terrible.

Under the rule of the dark rider, Russia descends into an extremely strict period of internal control and external aggression, which is largely dictated by Russia's geographic weaknesses. Unlike the United States, with its deep hinterland, extensive coasts and lengthy and navigable river networks, Russia's expansive barren landscape and lack of maritime transport options make trade, development and all-around life a constant struggle. Russia also lacks any meaningful barriers to hide behind, leaving it consistently vulnerable to outside attack.

Understanding that this geographic reality leaves Russia extremely insecure is critical to understanding Russia's dark periods. Once the dark rider takes the state's reins, he acts by any means necessary to achieve Russian security. Internal opposition is ruthlessly quashed, economic life is fully subjugated to the state's needs and Russia's armies are built furiously with the intent of securing unsecurable borders. That typically means war: As Catherine the Great famously put it: "I have no way to defend my borders except to extend them."

After a period of unification and expansion under the dark rider, Russia inevitably suffers from overextension. No land power can endlessly expand: the farther its troops are from core territories, the more expensive they are to maintain and the more vulnerable they are to counterattack by foreign forces. Similarly, the more non-Russians who are brought under the aegis of the Russian state, the less able the state is to impose its will on its population -- at least without Stalin-style brute force. This overextension just as inevitably leads to stagnation as the post-dark rider leadership attempts to come to grips with Russia's new reality, but lacks the resources to do so. Attempts at reform transform stagnation into decline. Stalin gives way to a miscalculating Nikita Khrushchev, a barely conscious Leonid Brezhnev, an outmatched Mikhail Gorbachev and a very drunk Boris Yeltsin. A new disaster eventually manifests and the cycle begins anew.

Why the Crackdown?

The April 14-15 protests occurred at an inflection point between the second and third parts of the cycle -- as the white rider is giving way to a dark rider. Past Russian protests that involved 2,500 total people at most would have been allowed simply because they did not matter. The Putin government has a majority in the rubber-stamp Duma sufficient to pass any law or constitutional change in a short afternoon of parliamentary fury. All meaningful political parties have been disbanded, criminalized or marginalized; the political system is fully under Kremlin control. The Kasparov/Kasyanov protests did not threaten Putin in any meaningful way -- yet in both Moscow and St. Petersburg a few dozen people were blocked, beaten and hauled off to court.

This development was no accident. Roughly 9,000 riot police do not spontaneously materialize anywhere, and certainly not as the result of an overenthusiastic or less-than-sober local commander. A crackdown in one city could be a misunderstanding; a crackdown in two is state policy. And one does not send hundreds of batons swinging but allow Reuters to keep filming unless the objective is to allow the world to see. Putin chose to make these protests an issue.

Putin, then, is considering various groups and rationalizing his actions in the context of Russia's historical cycle:

* The West: Putin certainly does not want any Western capital to think he will take exiled oligarch Boris Berezovsky's recent threats of forcible revolution lying down. Berezovsky says violence is a possibility -- a probability even -- in the future of regime change in Russia? Fine. Putin can and did quite easily demonstrate that, when it comes to the application of force in internal politics, the Russian government remains without peer.

* The people: Putin knows that governance is not so much about ruling as it is about managing expectations. Russians crave stability, and Putin's ability to grant that stability has earned him significant gravitas throughout Russia as well as a grudging respect from even his most stalwart foes. He is portraying groups such as the Other Russia as troublemakers and disturbers of the peace. Such explanations make quite attractive packaging to the average Russian.

* The opposition: It is one thing to oppose a wildly powerful and popular government. It is another thing when that government beats you while the people nod approvingly and the international community barely murmurs its protest. Putin has driven home the message that the opposition is not just isolated and out of touch, but that it is abandoned.

* The Kremlin: Just because Putin is disappointed that his dreams are unattainable does not mean he wants to be tossed out the proverbial air lock. Showing any weakness during a transition period in Russian culture is tantamount to surrender -- particularly when Russia's siloviki (nationalists) are always seeking to rise to the top of the heap. Putin knows he has to be firm if he is to play any role in shaping Russia during and after the transition. After all, should Medvedev and Ivanov fail to make the grade, someone will need to rule Russia -- and the only man alive with more experience than Putin has a blood-alcohol level that precludes sound decision-making.

Just What is Putin Afraid Of Exactly?

2007-04-16T11:05:00.000-05:00

Der Spiegel summarized the reaction of the German press to last weekends crackdowns on opposition protests in Moscow and St. Petersburg.

And Garry Kasparov discusses with Der Spiegel Other Russia's prospects, corruption in the Putin administration and upcoming elections.

Beware. The Claws Are There

2007-04-15T13:36:00.000-05:00

The inevitable comparisons of Putin's Russia and the Soviet Union are beginning to appear. This is an editorial in today's Times:

Like the end of history, the end of the cold war turns out to have been little more than western wishful thinking. And like history, the cold war seems to be repeating itself. Once again chilly winds are blowing across the steppes and over the rest of the world; perestroika and glasnost are little more than memories. Russia today is beginning to resemble the old Soviet Union — repressive at home and aggressive abroad. President Putin is quick to stamp on opposition. One has only to think of Anna Politkovskaya, of Mikhail Khodorkovsky and of Alexander Litvinenko. Read more...

Riot Police Beat Anti-Kremlin Demonstrators in St. Petersburg

2007-04-15T11:59:00.000-05:00

As expected, the police cracked down on participants of the March of Dissent rally in St. Petersburg linked to the Kremlin opposition group Other Russia. Yesterday, the police arrested dozens of protesters in Moscow, among them Other Russia's leader Gary Kasparov. The Washington Post and RFE/RL offer a comprehensive account of the recent events.

Markets Suffer After Russia Bans Immigrant Vendors

2007-04-14T23:13:00.000-05:00

The April 1 government decree banning immigrants from working as vendors in Russian outdoor markets resulted, as predicted, in shortages of food products and higher prices.

New York Times's Andrew Kramer reports that as a result of the decree, only 68 percent of the market stalls in Russia are occupied, according to government figures, while shortages and price increases are becoming acute in some regions. In one market in Chelyabinsk, in the Ural Mountains, prices for nonfood items rose 16 percent, according to the government, which surveyed 14 markets earlier this month. In Moscow, some 10,000 of the estimated 60,000 market stalls were vacant, according to the city government.

As the figures above are presented by the very same government that ascribed the price increases on the markets following the decree to inflation, it is probable that the problem is more acute.

This decree is the second part of the law designed to reduce the influx of immigrants from Central Asia and the Caucasus. On January 15, a law was passed reducing the number of foreigners allowed to work in the markets to 40 percent of the total workforce.
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Apologies for the Recent Inactivity

2007-04-14T22:50:00.000-05:00

Dear readers, please accept my apologies for the recent hybernation of the blog. I will try to keep it more up-to-date going forward. Thanks for your support.

Kasparov Arrested at Other Russia's Rally in Moscow

2007-04-14T22:34:00.000-05:00

On Saturday, Russian opposition activist Garry Kasparov was among about 170 people arrested as police moved against a banned anti-Kremlin rally in Moscow. Anti-Kremlin demonstrators plan to take again to the streets of St Petersburg on Sunday. More from BBC...

Also, BBC has published a short profile of Kasparov and his political activity with the opposition coalition The Other Russia.

The Sunday Herald's portrayal of Kasparov in lieu of the publishing of Kasparov's memoirs 'How Life Imitates Chess' was timed perfectly to coincide with the recent events in Moscow.

For more first-hand information and photos of the events, see entries in Robert Amsterdam's blog:
A Phone Call with Garry Kasparov and Karinna Moskalenko
Grigory Pasko: A Dispatch from the Frontlines
Photo Digest of the Dissenter's March
On the Phone with Moscow

Putin Touts Resurgent Russia

2007-01-24T17:16:00.000-05:00

Russian President Vladimir Putin has accused Kremlin critics of trying to weaken Russia's increasing influence as a global power. The Russian president used an interview with Indian media, and a press conference with Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi, to hit back at Western critics who he says are trying to put Russia in its place. More from Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty...

Lukoil Carves A Position For Itself In The Oil Industry

2007-01-24T11:56:00.000-05:00

While Russian energy companies like Gazprom, Rosneft and now bankrupt Yukos have been dominating the headlines of not only business news, the largest Russian oil group, Lukoil, employed a more subtle approach, reports the Financial Times in a series of articles. In a string of deals examined by the Financial Times, Lukoil has invested $3bn in downstream assets, principally in eastern Europe, including buying three refineries in Ukraine, Romania and Bulgaria and acquiring 2,000 petrol stations in the region.

Unlike state-controlled Gazprom, Lukoil is a fully-privatised company that works closely with a strategic foreign shareholder – ConocoPhilllips of the US, which owns just under 20 per cent. Read more...

Russia Dominates List Of Leading Hedge Funds

2007-01-23T20:59:00.000-05:00

It’s probably the corporate governance, jokes Greg Newton at Naked Shorts. A quick look at the list of the best performing single-strategy hedge funds over the past five years, courtesy of Pensions and Investments 2006 Databook, reveals a theme.

Of the top 40, 12 contain the words Russia or Russian. Then throw in one from Ukraine, and two further funds which hail from the Firebird Management, the fund manager co-founded by Harvey Sawikin that specializes in Russia and countries that were once part of the Soviet Union, and a sizeable chunk of the league table has found success in those markets, just going on name alone. Read more...

News Roundup: January 23, 2007

2007-01-23T10:03:00.000-05:00

BBC News: Chechen Police Probed Over Murder Of Anna Politkovskaya
Interfax: Moscow Denies Politkovskaya Probe Theory Cited By U.S. Reporters
Telegraph: Russia Threatened By US Missile Defence Plan
Jamestown Foundation - Eurasia Daily Monitor: Kremlin Strategy Targets Western Energy Assets In Russia, Western Supply Sources In Third Countries
Associated Press: Reports: Russia Fulfills Iran Missile Deal
Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty: Moscow To Host Karabakh Talks
International Herald Tribune: Putin Says He, Russians Want Next President To Pursue Similar Policies

Kremlin Pressed on Killings of Reporters

2007-01-22T21:04:00.000-05:00

The Moscow Times reports that a high-level delegation from the New York-based Committee to Protect Journalists called on Monday for the Russian government to step up its efforts to solve a rash of killings that it says have made this country one of the world's most dangerous for journalists.

On the eve of the delegation's arrival in Moscow, one journalist was murdered and another was severely beaten in the Far East.

Russia has been rated one of the most dangerous countries in the world for journalists. The Committee to Protect Journalists ranks Russia third in the number of journalists killed on the job since 1992 with 44 journalists killed. The International Federation of Journalists maintains that more than 200 journalists have been killed in Russia since 1993. Read more...

Russia Sends Back Envoy But Georgia Ties Strained

2007-01-22T20:59:00.000-05:00

Russia's ambassador to Georgia is returning to his post on Tuesday, January 23 after a four-month absence. Moscow and Tbilisi, however, cautioned there was a long way to go before their turbulent relations were back on an even keel. Reuters reports...

Germany and Russia Should Seize Opportunity

2007-01-22T20:45:00.000-05:00

The meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel was a good start for EU-Russian relations this year, says Deutsche Welle - WORLD's Ingo Mannteufel.

Russia and Germany are two natural partners in the dialogue over European energy security. Now, as Germany holds the presidency of the EU Council, may be the time to resolve the complicated energy relations for the future. Angela Merkel, finds herself on the pinnacle of her power, as other Western leaders like Jacques Chirac and Tony Blair descend from their prime. Vladimir Putin, on the other hand, has only a year and a half remaining in office, and a chance to create a powerful legacy of creating a reliable and functioning partnership with Europe which, despite of all rhetorics, remains Russia's only viable partner for the foreseeable future.
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FSB Catches 27 Foreign Spies In 2006

2006-12-19T11:08:00.000-05:00

RIA Novosti reports the Federal Security Service said Tuesday it has exposed 27 foreign intelligence officers and 89 Russian agents this year. "Of this number, one career intelligence officer and eight agents were caught red-handed," FSB Director Nikolai Patrushev said. "Twenty-one foreign nationals involved in intelligence operations were deported from Russia."
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The Putin Puzzle Revisited

2006-12-19T10:44:00.000-05:00

Putin’s presidency is constitutionally mandated to end in 2008, when new elections will be held. But who is Putin’s Putin? He succeeded Boris Yeltsin by promising that, whatever purges he might carry out, Yeltsin and his family would be shielded. Yeltsin was old, ill and alcoholic, and Putin’s offer must have seemed one he couldn’t refuse. Putin is young and vigorous, and has no reason to put his fate in the hands of a successor or successors who wouldn’t be able to guarantee his lifelong immunity even if they wanted.
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Putin Succession Doubts Unsettle the Kremlin

2006-12-19T10:30:00.000-05:00

So far, Mr Putin is resisting all efforts to persuade him to amend the constitution and stay for a third term as president of Russia, but the pressures are mounting, The Financial Times report. He has promised to remain closely involved - but Russia has never been run successfully with a division of power in the Kremlin. So the speculation remains.
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Engels Would Gasp, and Locals Gripe, at a Golden Mile

2006-12-19T10:03:00.000-05:00

The New York Times published an article yesterday portraying the growing gap between the have's and have-not's in today's sizzling housing market of Moscow flooded with oil money.
“Leave Us Alone” is the name of a movement started by the residents of Ostozhenka, once home to many artists and intellectuals, which is now known in the parlance of real estate agents and their wealthy clients as the Golden Mile. It was spurred by the latest luxury housing project, slated for the site of an apartment building in which some of them still live, at Khilkov Pereulok 3.
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The Kremlin’s Shell Game

2006-12-19T09:58:00.000-05:00

President Vladimir Putin believes that a powerful, state-controlled energy sector is the key to Russia’s economic future, even if he has to strong-arm foreign investors to get it. But trampling property rights is risky. It is as likely to leave Russia an economic pariah as an energy superpower.
Read more in today's New York Times editorial...

Vladimir Putin: Turning Energy Into Power

2006-12-19T09:46:00.000-05:00

In 2006, Putin made use of high oil prices to bolster Russia's position in the world to the strongest it has been since the cold war ended more than 15 years ago. "He's using the advantage of high oil prices to make Russia count," says Margot Light, a Russia expert at the London School of Economics.
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ConoccoPhillips To Raise Stake In Russia's LukOil to 20 Percent

2006-12-18T14:45:00.000-05:00

US energy giant ConoccoPhillips said it plans to raise its stake in Russian peer LukOil to 20 percent by the end of this year. In a joint statement, the companies said the move is part of a strategic alliance that was announced in 2004. The companies said in the same statement that LukOil has acquired 376 Jet brand fuelling stations in Europe from ConocoPhillips.
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Russia Rises On Global Oil Demand

2006-12-18T09:08:00.000-05:00

Russia has emerged as an unrivaled energy superpower in a world thirsty for oil and gas, but the country's recent moves to seize control of strategic parts of the energy industry have slowed growth in production and raised questions about the legal rights of investors and speed of future development, writes Patrice Hill for The Washington Times.
As the world looks increasingly to Russia to satisfy its energy needs, the International Energy Agency is raising questions about whether growth in Russian oil and gas exports will be fast enough to keep up with rising demand in Europe and commitments Russia has made to deliver oil and gas to both Europe and Asia. "Will the investments take place? Will they come on time?" asked William C. Ramsey, deputy executive director of the international agency. "These are costly projects. ... We're concerned that the investment climate now is not conducive to bringing those resources online."
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Russia Polyus Eyes Foreign Merger

2006-12-18T09:02:00.000-05:00

Top Russian gold miner Polyus Gold (PLZL.RTS: Quote, Profile , Research), which is due to list on the London Stock Exchange on Monday, will consider a foreign merger. Polyus, which produces 18 percent of Russia's gold, has said it plans to create by 2015 a company with market capitalisation of $14 billion to $16.5 billion (7 billion to 8.4 billion pounds) and net annual cash flow of $600 million to $710 million. The firm was spun off this year from Russian mining giant Norilsk Nickel.
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Global Investors Should Think Again About Russia

2006-12-18T08:56:00.000-05:00

Rapid growth may have convinced many big companies that they need to be in the Russian market. Yet if you aren't allowed to keep control of your assets, there is no point in being there. Put your money to work in eastern Europe, India or China instead, writes Matthew Lynn for Bloomberg.

Russian Gas Demands Irk Belarus

2006-12-18T08:52:00.000-05:00

Russia and Belarus seem no closer to reaching an agreement over a dispute about the cost of gas supplies after a meeting of the two countries' leaders, reports BBC. Russia has threatened to quadruple the amount its neighbour pays for its imports unless it takes control of Belarus' gas distribution network.
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Several Dozen Russian Opposition Activists Pay Tribute To Killed Journalists

2006-12-17T11:45:00.000-05:00

About 300 demonstrators gathered Sunday to remember Anna Politkovskaya and other journalists who had been killed in Russia. Participants in the unauthorized rally in downtown Moscow held pictures of Politkovskaya and other reporters who have been killed, and chanted "Down with Police State!" before observing a moment of silence behind heavy police cordons.
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Russia's A Cuddly Bear In The Energy War

2006-12-17T11:32:00.000-05:00

Lisa Buckingham, the Financial Mail editor writes that the challenges that Shell is facing in the Sakhalin-2 project are great, but nothing new. Muddling through with hostile political regimes is day-to-day stuff for oil giants. The expropriation of assets is, historically, par for the course. Remember, for example, that BP had a goodly part of its business swiped by Iran.

As BP's chief executive, Lord Browne, remarked when discussing the difficulties of doing business in Russia, if not there then the alternative was violent, war-ravaged Africa. Looked at from this perspective, Russia appears eminently hospitable.
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More Than 2,000 People Rally Against Government In Moscow

2006-12-16T12:39:00.000-05:00

AP reports that more than 2,000 people held a rare anti-government rally in Moscow on Saturday, accusing the Kremlin of growing authoritarianism and protesting against electoral law changes. Authorities, however, pulled opposition activists off buses and trains, and hundreds were detained to prevent them from attending, activists said.
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The Litvinenko Affair: Murder Most Opaque

2006-12-16T11:58:00.000-05:00

In its Friday's special report, The Economist wonders "what a poisoned Russian agent tells us about the way that Russia is governed". Its article offers a broad range of theories of who was responsible for Litvinenko's death but the main point remains that at the end of the day, the 'who' may not be as important. What is important, however, is that the case actually caused the controversy it did and put Vladimir Putin's Russia under microscope.

As seems to be the case, Litvinenko was nothing like the Russian KGB superagent turned human rights advocate as he was portrayed in Western press. "He was not really a spy, as he has been described, but worked for domestic units of the FSB, one of the KGB's post-Soviet successors. He has been labelled a defector; but few people took the information he brought out of Russia when he fled to Britain seriously." However, his death marked a drastic turn in how Russia is viewed. The war in Chechnya, the contract murders in Moscow and the consolidation of power in the hands of the siloviki is one issue. The fact that the perception exists that the Russian state actually could reach out and assassinate a British citizen in London (regardless whether it actually was the case) is another issue. But the two cannot be viewed in vacuum. Litvinenko's murder was the proverbial last drop that caused the bucket to overflow. All of the sudden, the situation in Russia cannot be ignored any longer. Putin's shortcomings that were conveniently pushed aside when we wanted Russian oil and natural gas and when we wanted to be part of Moscow's stock and real estate market boom are suddenly exposed as never before.

Japan Offers Solution for Russia Dispute

2006-12-14T09:14:00.000-05:00

AP reports that Japan's foreign minister said a dispute with Russia over a string of islands could be solved by splitting the total land area in half, a newspaper reported Thursday. Russia and Japan both claim a group of islands seized by the Soviets near the end of World War II. The dispute has prevented the countries from a signing peace treaty to formally end World War II hostilities.
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Russia Does Not Murder Spies Any More: KGB Veteran

2006-12-14T08:32:00.000-05:00

Reuters reports that the head of an organization of former Russian spies was quoted as saying on Thursday Stalin-era policies of Moscow assassinating enemies had ceased, and ex-KGB agent Alexander Litvinenko was probably murdered by criminals. Former KGB agent Valentin Velichko, head of a Moscow-based Russian nationalist foundation called "Dignity and Honor," said in an interview with German Die Welt newspaper (in German) that Litvinenko, who died on November 23 from severe radiation poisoning, was a traitor but was not killed by Moscow.
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Sean Guillory's blog features an ealier interview with the vice president of "Dignity and Honor" reprinted from the Kommersant.

Russia Watchdog Mitvol Faces Disciplinary Rap

2006-12-14T08:21:00.000-05:00

Reuters reported that Russia's outspoken environment watchdog Oleg Mitvol, who has waged a harsh campaign against the Shell-led Sakhalin-2 energy project, faced disciplinary proceedings on Thursday that could herald his dismissal. The head of state environmental agency RosPrirodNadzor, Sergei Sai, has asked Resources Minister Yuri Trutnev to hand Mitvol a formal warning, a ministry spokesman said.
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There won't be many tears in the Russian business community. Mitvol has been involved not just in Sakhalin-2 but in many other similar disputes targeting Russian and foreign businesses alike.

Study: Ex-KGB Fill Russia's Elite

2006-12-13T19:38:00.000-05:00

Reuters reports: President Vladimir Putin has never hidden his KGB spy past and over three-quarters of Russia's political elite have tell-tale signs of a background in the security services or military, a new study says.

"Our research has shown that ... 78 percent of the Russian elite have signs of being siloviki," Olga Kryshtanovskaya, who has studied the Russian elite since 1989, told Reuters in a telephone interview.
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Ex-Spy 'Was Poisoned In October'

2006-12-13T16:26:00.000-05:00

A key witness in the radiation death of former Russian security agent Alexander Litvinenko claimed the poisoning took place earlier than is widely believed, a newspaper reported Wednesday.
Andrei Lugovoi, a security agent-turned-businessman who met with Litvinenko at a London hotel on November 1, the day Litvinenko suspected he was poisoned, said in an interview with the Moskovsky Komsomolets tabloid that he and Litvinenko were poisoned on October 16.
Read more...

Russia harshly criticizes United States for raising Belarus at U.N. Security Council

2006-12-13T16:14:00.000-05:00

AP reported that Russia's Foreign Ministry criticized the United States for raising the plight of an opposition leader in Belarus in the United Nations Security Council, saying the move violated U.N procedures.
Read more...

Moscow Police Raid Office Of Putin Opponent

2006-12-12T21:41:00.000-05:00

Garry Kasparov, the former world chess champion who is now a Russian opposition leader, said Tuesday that the police had raided his office to try to disrupt a planned protest against President Vladimir Putin, writes The International Herald Tribune.
Read more...

Moscow Changes Mind On Shtokman

2006-12-12T20:40:00.000-05:00

The Russian authorities have changed their mind on the possibility of foreign companies participating in the world’s largest gas field, Shtokman. EU Commissioner for Energy Andris Piebalgs told RBC Daily that Norway’s Hydro and Statoil may accept the Kremlin’s offer, as well as France’s Total.
Read more...

BlogSpotting

2006-12-12T20:13:00.000-05:00

La Russophobe: Another Russian Speaks on the Litvinenko Killing, Another Exclusive LR Translation
Robert Amsterdam: Grigory Pasko: Is Everything Fine in Russia's Camps?

Fourth Suspect Detained Over Attempt on Top Reformer Chubais’ Life

2006-12-12T20:01:00.000-05:00

Russian authorities have detained Ivan Mironov, the 25-year-old history student, who had been wanted over an assassination attempt on the head of the Unified Energy Systems of Russia joint-stock company, Anatoly Chubais, Interfax reports. Boris Mironov, father of the detainee and former Russian Federation Press Minister has also been detained in Moscow recently.

Anatolii Chubais, the head of Russia's electricity monopoly, escaped an assassination attempt on March 17, 2005. He was traveling in a motorcade on the Minsk highway towards Moscow when a landmine planted on the road exploded. Then, two armed men wearing white camouflage in a nearby forest, opened fire on the motorcade with automatic weapons. Chubais's bodyguards returned fire, and the would-be assassins fled into the forest.
Read more about the assassination attempt on Chubais from BBC...

Russia's Window to the East

2006-12-12T19:37:00.000-05:00

Today, the European Union receives a half of its imported gas and a third of imported oil from Russia, which delivers nearly all of its hydrocarbons exports to Europe. Russia's Asian neighbors, on the other hand, receive by rail only 3% of Russia's oil and no gas. This is about to change, according to RIA Novosti's Yury Alexandrov.

In late 2004, the Russian government issued a resolution on the construction of a controversial 4,000-km East Siberia - Pacific Ocean (ESPO) oil pipeline with a throughput annual capacity of 80 million tons. Out of this amount, up to 30 million tons of oil should be sent along the first leg to Daqing, the oil producing center of China, and some 50 million tons to the Pacific coast (second leg).

During President Vladimir Putin's recent official visit to China, energy giant Gazprom and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) signed an agreement on the annual delivery of 30-40 billion cubic meters of gas to China after 2010, with a possibility of increasing deliveries to 60-80 billion.
Read more...

Russia's Strong-Arm Tactics

2006-12-12T15:56:00.001-05:00

According to The Economist, the Shell’s recent secession of control over the Sakhalin-2 project should not come as a surprise. Vladimir Putin’s regime shamelessly dismembered Yukos, an oil firm owned by a political rival. And Russia’s government has made little secret that it regards energy as a legitimate tool of foreign policy in an energy hungry world. The grab for Sakhalin is just the latest tightening of Russia’s grip on its oil and gas reserves. The Kremlin is discouraging foreign participation in the exploitation of energy reserves: legislation is planned to limit outsiders, in future, to minority stakes in energy and precious-metal firms.
Read more...

Russia Has No Say On Georgia's Breakaway Regions

2006-12-12T12:42:00.000-05:00

RIA Novosti reports: The issue of Georgia's breakaway republics should be decided by Tbilisi together with the international community, not by Russia, the speaker of the Georgian parliament said Tuesday, after the popular Russian daily Kommersant reported earlier that Russia has worked out a plan on the status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

According to the plan, Abkhazia and South Ossetia will reunite with Georgia as a confederation. They will formally be part of Georgia, but will enjoy de-facto independence recognized by the international community.
Read more...

Russia Acknowledges Breakaway Transdnestr's Presidential Vote

2006-12-12T12:31:00.000-05:00

Russia recognized Tuesday the landslide vote for the incumbent leader of Moldova's breakaway region Sunday, saying it should be taken into account at talks on Trans-Dniester's status, reports RIA Novosti.
Trans-Dniester's Election Commission said Monday that President Igor Smirnov, who has served three consecutive terms as leader of the post-Soviet de facto independent republic, won 82.4% of the vote. Moldova and the European Union have not recognized the vote and its result.

Kremlin Frets About Blame In Litvinenko Case

2006-12-12T11:11:00.000-05:00

The Kremlin said yesterday it was "extremely worried" about damage to Russia's reputation from the Litvinenko affair and the readiness of western media to blame Moscow as it launched a public relations offensive intended to challenge presumptions of official Russian involvement in the death of the former KGB officer, The Financial Times report.
Read more…

Killing Aimed at 'Destablising' Russia

2006-12-12T09:40:00.000-05:00

Vladimir Putin's deputy spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, has called the killing of Alexander Litvinenko in London an attempt to destabilise Russia in a news segment on BBC amid a public relations offensive of the Kremlin.
Watch here...

In Russia, A Secretive Force Widens

2006-12-12T08:55:00.000-05:00

The Washington Post reports: Russia's intertwined political and business elites are increasingly populated with former intelligence agents who have personally proved themselves to Vladimir Putin. At the same time, Putin has spearheaded the regrouping and strengthening of the country's security services, which had splintered into a host of agencies after the Soviet Union's dissolution in 1991. In recent years, the Federal Security Service has emerged as one of Russia's most powerful and secretive forces, with an increasingly international mission. Putin headed the agency in the 1990s.
Read more...

Intrigue Over Spy’s Death Spreads to Germany

2006-12-11T09:11:00.000-05:00

According to The New York Times, the German authorities announced Sunday that they had begun a criminal investigation of a Russian businessman after finding traces of polonium 210 around Hamburg that date back to Oct. 28 — four days before he met in London Alexander Litvinenko. It has added to suspicions that the case is connected to the shadowy world of agents and businessmen, defectors, spies and exiles let loose by the dissolution of the K.G.B., and still entwined with successor agencies.

The man the Germans have put at the center of scrutiny is Dmitri V. Kovtun, a 41-year-old Russian who was a student in the 1980s at the Supreme Soviet Higher Military Command School, where many students went on to serve in the K.G.B. He has been in a Moscow hospital since Dec. 7, suffering from exposure to polonium. There are conflicting reports about his health; Interfax, the Russian news agency, reported he was in critical condition, but his lawyer later disputed that.
Read more…

Moldova Rebel Region Re-Elects Pro-Moscow Leader

2006-12-11T08:25:00.000-05:00

As was widely expected, Moldova's rebel Trans-Dniester region re-elected pro-Russian leader Igor Smirnov for a fourth five-year term as president in Sunday's presidential election, the head of the central election commission said on Monday.
Read more...

Russia to Create Giant Company to Control Oil and Gas Production at Sea Shelf

2006-12-11T08:14:00.000-05:00

Russian daily Kommersant reported on Monday, Dec. 11, that the meeting of the Russian Security Council chaired by President Putin on Saturday developed a new strategy to give the government control of oil and gas extraction on the Russian sea shelf. The paper reported that the Russian authorities may combine state-controlled giants Gazprom, Rosneft and Zarubezhneft into a single government monopoly that would take over the shelf production.
Read more...

Gazprom Says Shell Makes Offer on Russia's Sakhalin-2

2006-12-11T08:07:00.000-05:00

Gazprom said Royal Dutch Shell Plc made new proposals for the Russian company to join its $22 billion Sakhalin-2 oil and gas venture, as President Vladimir Putin expands his control of the world's biggest energy industry.

Reuters earlier reported that Shell agreed to cede state-run Gazprom a majority stake in Sakhalin-2. Moscow-based Gazprom spokesman Sergei Kupriyanov and Shell Russia Vice President Maxim Shoob declined to confirm or deny the Reuters report, which cited unidentified industry people.
Read more...

Royal Dutch Shell’s decision to hand over control of the $22 billion energy project in Sakhalin to Russia’s state monopoly Gazprom is a victory for Russia’s new hardline policy on energy. It is also a warning to Western business that investment in Putin’s Russia still carries real risks, writes Michael Binyon of The Times.

The Spy Who Knew Too Much

2006-12-10T23:04:00.000-05:00

The investigation into the death of a Russian dissident in London heats up and sheds an ugly light on Vladimir Putin's rule - The Time Magazine published a seven-page article on December 10, examining the multiple facets of the Litvinenko affair.
Read more...

The Jail Letters Sent To Warn Litvinenko

2006-12-10T22:03:00.000-05:00

Alexander Litvinenko, the former Russian spy murdered in London, was sent a series of letters warning him of a plot to kill him, The Sunday Telegraph reveals. In the letters, passed exclusively to The Telegraph, Mikhail Trepashkin, a former state security agent jailed in 2003 after trying to expose corruption, warned Litvinenko that his life and those of his wife and children were in danger from Russian hit men. Read more...

Trans-Dniester Separatists In Eastern Moldova Hold Presidential Elections

2006-12-10T21:39:00.000-05:00

Internationa Herald Tribune reports that residents in the self-proclaimed separatist republic of Trans-Dniester in eastern Moldova cast ballots Sunday in a presidential election. Igor Smirnov, an authoritarian leader with strong ties to Russia who has run Trans-Dniester since 1991, is expected to easily beat three challengers to win a fourth consecutive five-year term in office.

Trans-Dnister or Pridnestrovie is a region of the Republic of Moldova in southeastern Europe which declared its independence on September 2, 1990. Its de facto independence has not been recognized and its sovereignty remains an issue of contention.

There is disagreement as to whether elections in Transnistria are free and fair. Western countries and organizations, such as the OSCE, have declared that no democratic elections can take place in Transnistria under the present circumstances and have refused to recognize or monitor them. Election results are suspicious, as in 2001 in one region it was reported that Kamchatka-raised former metalworker Igor Smirnov collected 103.6% of the votes. Nevertheless, some organizations, such as CIS-EMO, have participated and have called them democratic.
Read more...

Russia: How Long Can The Fun Last?

2006-12-10T21:22:00.000-05:00

Business Week published an analysis of Russia's economy asking the million dollar question. Is the recent boom that has made Russia the fastest growing emerging market the last two years for real?

There's little doubt that a major driver of the newfound bounty is oil and other natural resources. Without the runup in commodity prices, economic growth would have been two to three percentage points lower during the last three years, estimates the Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development. Developing countries, meanwhile, don't have a very good track record of using windfall profits from commodity booms to lay the foundations for sustainable growth.

To his credit, Putin has used much of the cash to build up financial reserves. Russia has created a $90 billion fund—equivalent to 9% of gdp—to protect against a drop in oil prices. Fiscal policy remains tight, with the Kremlin expecting a budget surplus equal to 7% of GDP this year. And Russia is well ahead of most other resource-rich countries in its economic development, with a long tradition of education, science, and industry.

Economists warn that high oil prices have bred complacency. The OECD cautions that economic reforms have largely stagnated. Worse, corruption and bureaucratic interference continue to impede business: Russia ranks alongside Gambia and the Philippines near the bottom of think tank Transparency International's annual list of corrupt countries.
Read more...

'Radioactive' Anti-Smoking Ad Pulled

2006-12-10T21:16:00.000-05:00

Britain today delayed the airing of an "inappropriate" anti-smoking advertisement because it warned viewers that cigarettes contained the radioactive isotope that killed ex-Russian spy Alexander Litvinenko. Read more...

BlogSpotting: The Corporate State

2006-12-10T21:00:00.000-05:00

Robert Amsterdam: 2006 Marked by the Rise of the Corporate State
"As Andrei Illarionov pointed out during a speech at the Cato Institute last month, in the case of Yukos, these energy assets were transferred by illegal means not from one private owner to the people, but rather from one group of individuals to another group of individuals. It is absurd to pretend that this is a real nationalization when it is only a small group of private individuals within the government lining their pockets with the rents from these businesses."

Russia Presses UK For Role In Litvinenko Probe

2006-12-10T20:44:00.000-05:00

The Financial Times report that Russian prosecutors are exerting pressure on UK authorities to allow their own investigators to fly to London to probe the poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko, in a move that threatens to raise political and diplomatic tensions over the case.
Russian authorities have requested access to individuals they want to question in London, including Boris Berezovsky and Akhmed Zakayev, who have declared themselves associates and friends of Litvinenko. Read more...

Putin Hints at a Shtokman Reversal

2006-12-10T20:36:00.000-05:00

President Vladimir Putin and two senior state officials reopened the possibility of foreign energy majors taking part in the Shtokman gas project, signaling that Gazprom might soon reverse its decision to bar them from developing the giant Arctic field, reports The Moscow Times.

Gazprom's announcement in early October that it had rejected all five foreign bidders for Shtokman prompted widespread shock and skepticism in the global oil and gas industry. Many doubted Gazprom was capable of developing the huge gas field, its first offshore, on its own.

In separate statements, Putin and Industry and Energy Minister Viktor Khristenko reiterated Gazprom's argument that the equity swaps offered by the five short-listed companies -- U.S. oil majors ConocoPhillips and Chevron, France's Total, and Norway's Statoil and Norsk Hydro -- were inadequate.

Putin's recent comments prompted speculation that the selection of foreign partners for Shtokman could, after all, have been linked to negotiations with the United States on Russia's entry to the World Trade Organization. Spokespeople for the Kremlin have previously denied the existence of a direct link between the two issues.
Read more...

Russia Threatens International Journalists With Libel Suits Over Litvinenko's Case

2006-12-10T10:59:00.000-05:00

Russia Today, Moscow's English-language satellite television channel, reported that Russian government officials are considering filing libel suits against international journalists over their reporting on the poisoning death of former Russian spy Alexander Litvinenko. Read more...

When an Ex-K.G.B. Man Says They’re Out to Get Him...

2006-12-10T10:46:00.000-05:00

In the Sunday edition of the New York Times, Scott Shane, reflects on the increasing influence of the KGB and its return to long abolished deadly practices.
For decades, any K.G.B. officer who defected was automatically tried and sentenced to death, and officers overseas were expected to carry out the sentences. In the late 1960s, when Yuri Andropov became K.G.B. chief, the practice faded. Now the practice may be back and playing out in a world where former K.G.B. officers, with murky continuing relations with the successor agency, are found in many countries. Michael McFaul, a Russia specialist at Stanford University, said that whoever killed Mr. Litvinenko chose the gruesome murder weapon to deter others who would openly break with the F.S.B. and the regime. “The message is: Be afraid. Be very afraid,” he said. Read more...

Russia's Poisoned Democracy

2006-12-10T10:39:00.000-05:00

No matter who killed Litvinenko, Putin's Russia is a killing zone for journalists, writes The Los Angeles Times.
Were the killings of Politkovskaya and Litvinenko isolated incidents, the Kremlin's protests that it suffers most from the bad international publicity would be more worthy of sympathy. But Politkovskaya was at least the 21st Russian journalist to be killed since Putin was elected in 2000, according to Reporters Without Borders. Two others have disappeared and are presumed dead, and there have been 320 assaults.
While the newspaper's staff risks their lives to shed light on the inner workings of Putin's Russia, the West has a moral obligation to insist that the Russian government protect them. Read more...

Russia To Blame, Says Litvinenko Widow

2006-12-10T00:37:00.000-05:00

The widow of poisoned former Russian spy Alexander Litvinenko said last night she believed the Russian authorities could be behind his death, as it emerged that two British police officers investigating the case had been contaminated with polonium 210.

Marina Litvinenko said her husband had never felt that he was a 'first target' and she did not realise how much he had ben at risk until he was close to death. She indicated that she did not blame Russian President Vladimir Putin directly, but said: 'What Putin does around him in Russia makes it possible to kill a British person on British soil. I believe that it could have been the Russian authorities.' Read more...

The Rotten Heart of Russia

2006-12-09T23:53:00.000-05:00

Scotland Yard detectives have now had a week of official stonewalling; the British ambassador is being threatened by Right-wing thugs; and frustration and intimidation (and increasingly extortion) have become the norm for anyone doing business in Russia, writes The Sunday Telegraph.

It is very easy to criticize Russia these days; in fact, it would be much harder to say something positive. However, it seems to me that at this point there is nothing the Russian government can do to stop the continuous attacks of the Western (and particularly British) media. What seems especially unfair to me is how the investigation process into the Litvinenko poisoning has been portrayed.

"[Yuri Chaika, Russia's chief prosecutor], instructions to the team, which was led by a detective chief superintendent and was in Russia to interview potential witnesses in the investigation into the murder of the former Russian spy, Alexander Litvinenko, were succinct and to the point. The interviews, he told them, would be carried out chiefly by his officers, with the British detectives as witnesses; no suspects would be extradited to the UK, and all Russian citizens suspected of involvement in the poisoning of Litvinenko would be tried in Russia."

Yes, Russia is a very corrupt country; yes, it is debatable if you can classify it as a democracy or a dictatorship; and yes, the recent events from the murder of Ana Politkovskaya to the harrassment of the British ambassador sheds a negative light on Russia under Putin. However, we should not forget that Russia is a sovereign (and proud) country. Russia does not have an extradition treaty with Russia and critisizing the fact that no suspects in the Litvinenko case would ever be extradited to Russia completely misses the point. Does the UK extradite Berezovsky and Zakayev? It does not. I am not arguing that it should but the principle is the same. Furthermore, the British press is very critical of the fact that the British police is dependent on collaboration with Russian authorities and, surprise-surprise, the Russians are not very willing to cooperate. I would like to see the cooperation if the sides were reversed. Can you imagine the amount of help the Russian militsia would receive in London investigating a highly controversial, politicized case? I don't think there would be very much.

I have no illusions about Russia under Vladimir Putin and the siloviki. I wish Russia was less corrupt, and more democratic and transparent. I think that the recent events have been terrible, and certainly put Russia under a scrutiny that was long overdue. However, I think that the reporting of the mainly British press borders on histeria.

Update: Peter Beaumont's thoughts in his comment in Sunday's edition of The Observer titled Just who do we think we are? observe the same treatment of the British media over how the authorities in Moscow are restricting the access British detectives are allowed to key witnesses in the Litvinenko affair.

Seven Questions: Russia’s Cloaks and Daggers

2006-12-09T18:52:00.000-05:00

This interview is not exactly hot off the press but it offers some interesting insights into the murky world of Russian intelligence. Foreign Policy published an interview with Yevgenia Albats is professor of political science at the Moscow-based state university, The Higher School of Economics, in wake of the Litvinenko poisoning. The answer to the question on everyone's mind: Who is the FSB? Who controls them? What is the danger coming from them? is that nobody knows. What seems to be apparent, though, is that we are not dealing with the KGB anymore when its goals were clearly defined by the Soviet ideology and which was working more or less directly in the interest of the Soviet state.

BlogSpotting: Nashi and Brenton

2006-12-09T18:35:00.000-05:00

Sean Guillory: Nashi's Anti-Brenton Campaign
"Nashi has become one of the populist means to intimidate those it has deemed enemies of Russia and Putin. Welcome to the Komsomol reincarnate."

Martin Kelly: Sack Brenton Now
"To those Russians standing outside the British Embassy on Moscow demanding that [Brenton] apologise, I apologise on his behalf; and hope in all sincerity that the thugs and thieves who have been given shelter in my name in my country will soon be returned to face your justice."

La Russophobe: Kremlin's Youth Cult On Rampage
"Foreign ministry officials privately agree that Nashi's behaviour is outrageous and goes well beyond peaceful protest. But they claim there is little they can do: Nashi is too close to the Kremlin. It has close ties with Vladislav Surkov, the deputy head of the Kremlin administration, as well as Mr Putin himself."

Russian Billionaire's Bitter Feud With Putin A Plot Line in Poisoning

2006-12-09T15:09:00.000-05:00

The Washington Post has brought a commentary in its Saturday edition revising the bitter relationship between Boris Berezovsky, the exiled Russian billionaire, and Vladimir Putin. Following the death of Alexander Litvinenko, Berezovsky found itself once again at the center of the international intrigue. His personal relationship with Putin makes the recent events even more bizarre.

Berezovsky was prominent among the group of Russian oligarchs who helped the then relatively Putin win the presidential election in 2000 following the abrupt abdication of Boris Yeltsin. However, Berezovsky was not able to retain his prominent position in the inner cercle of the Kremlin that he held under Yeltsin. Berezovsky's supporters claim that he was appalled by the increasing consolidation of power in the hands of Putin and his former KGB colleagus. According to Putin's followers Berezovsky unhappily discovered that the new president would not be his puppet like the ailing Yeltsin.

more...

Newsweek Interview With Yegor Gaidar

2006-12-09T14:59:00.000-05:00

On December 7, Yegor Gaidar discussed with Newsweek his sudden, mysterious illness.

Russian Regime Is Accused of Intimidating British Interests

2006-12-09T14:28:00.000-05:00

The British ambassador suffers months of harassment and BBC service in Moscow mysteriously goes off the air after the Litvinenko murder, The Times report.

The pro-Kremlin youth movement Nashi has been accused of a systematic campaign of intimidation against the British ambassador in Moscow, Tony Brenton, following his speech at a Russian opposition meeting in July. At the time President Putin accused Brenton of interfering in Russia’s domestic affairs, after the envoy spoke at the Other Russia opposition gathering held before the G8 summit in St Petersburg. more...
Nashi (Ours) has been formed in March 2005 to "put an end to the unnatural union of oligarchs and anti-Semites, liberals and Nazis". However, Nashi itself has often been compared to organizations like the Hitlerjugend (Hitler Youth) or the Komsomol. more...

The Russians are also suspected of a hand in the disruption of the BBC’s Russian Service FM broadcasts in Moscow and St Petersburg, at the height of coverage of the Litvinenko poisoning. more...

45 Die in Fire at Moscow Hospital

2006-12-09T14:20:00.000-05:00

A fire in a drug-treatment hospital in Moscow early Saturday killed 45 women who were trapped behind a blocked emergency exit and locked window grilles as smoke suffocated them, Russian officials said. While arson was suspected, the magnitude of the death toll appeared to result from gross safety violations and the evident failure of the hospital’s staff to make an effort to rescue its patients, the officials said. As the New York Times reports, Russia has strict building and fire codes but also a culture of bribery and corruption that allows violations to pass unpunished - and unfixed. more...

Hotel Bar Focus Of Spy Death Probe

2006-12-08T14:06:00.000-05:00

Detectives investigating the poisoning death of an ex-KGB agent focused Friday on a meeting at a London hotel bar where at least 10 people may have been exposed to radioactive polonium-210, CNN reports. Also, on December 5, CNN published a Who's Who? in the Litvinenko case.

The New Great Game

2006-12-08T11:07:00.000-05:00

Russia’s and the United States’ geopolitical interests clash in Central Asia and the Caucasus, writes Aaron Sadler in his analysis for the Russia Profile. These territories are not only strategic for expanded influence after the fall of the Soviet Union, but also for access to increasingly important energy resources and supply routes. In the 1990’s Russia has lost its previous advantage in the area and the United States did its best to fill the void. The resurging Russia under Putin, however, strives hard to regain its lost influence, which leads to tensions between the two powers. Sadler argues that “it is in the Caucasus that a conflict could arise between the United States and Russia, driven by the need for energy security. However, it is also important to note that this potential conflict would probably not entail any overt moves directly against the larger players but, like a Cold War conflict, be played out by proxies.” more…

It Is Getting Chilly

2006-12-08T10:17:00.000-05:00

It may be misleading to describe the relations of Russia and the West as the new Cold War, yet, argues The Economist. However, it would also be misleading to underestimate the threat Russia has come to present over the seven years of the Putin era. Russia does not threaten the West with its vast nuclear arsenal anymore; its weapons are more subtle: “cheap gas, and money for the right people.” more…

Russian Energy Billionaires

2006-12-07T22:03:00.000-05:00

The United States and Russia accounted for 38 of 45 energy billionaires on this year's Forbes list of world's richest people. First on the list is Roman Abramovich, the owner of the Chelsea soccer team, who sold his stake in oil firm Sibneft to the state owned Rosneft for $13 billion. First among active oilmen is another Russian, Vagit Alekperov, the president of Lukoil.

Watchdog’s Bark Worse than Its Bite

2006-12-07T20:27:00.000-05:00

Shell’s weblog reprinted a commentary by Ben Aris, the editor of Business New Europe in which he discusses the recent wave of spats between Rosprirodnadzor, the Russian environmental watchdog, and some high-profile industrial groups. The most illustrious example is the recent finding of environmental negligence in the Sakhalin II project. Russian companies are targeted as well as shows the case of Lukoil whose environmental licenses Rosprirodnadzor questioned in October. As we discussed in an earlier post, “the Sakhalin case has done more than anything to popularize the idea that assaults on companies using environmental laws as a weapon represent a new phenomenon in Russia, but the threat has been present since the Kremlin began its more aggressive industrial policy in 2004.” However, despite the rhetoric, Rosprirodnadzor has not yet followed through on any of its threats. But the memory of Yukos (which did not collapse on environmental grounds but because of Kremlin’s crusade against the socalled tax-optimization schemes) is sure to keep the investors on their toes.

BlogSpotting:

2006-12-07T19:31:00.000-05:00

Sean Guillory: Antifa Activist's Murderers Convicted For "Hooliganism"
La Russophobe: Blackmail!
Martin Kelly: The Death Of Alexander Litvinenko, Continued - A Theory Concerning The Death Of Lt. Col Alexander Litvinenko, Part II

Russia Ups Pressure On Sakhalin

2006-12-07T15:18:00.000-05:00

A day after announcing the finding of more than 100 violations, Russia has suspended vital permits for Royal Dutch Shell's Sakhalin-2 oil and gas venture, in a move that may further delay the $22bn (£11bn) project, BBC reports.

The Press in Russia

2006-12-07T12:07:00.000-05:00

BBC brings an overview of Russian press. It reports that the Russian readers today enjoy a much wider variety of titles than they ever did during the Sovier era. However, the circulation rates in Russia with roughly 100 newspapers sold for every 1000 inhabitants are among the lowest in Europe. Furthermore, several influential newspapers in Moscow have been bought up by business groups close to the Kremlin in an apparent effort to establish more control over the media. These efforts, however, may be rather redundant because "as a news medium, the press has been comfortably overtaken by television, which is more popular [and] has far wider reach." And Kremlin's control over Russian television is complete with all the stations broadcasting from Russia being owned by Kremlin friendly groups.

Russia: Stunt Protests and the Law

2006-12-07T12:01:00.000-05:00

On December 6, Vladimir Putin has signed into law a bill that abolished minimum voter turnout (20 percent) for all elections in Russia. On Nov. 23, a week after the controversial bill was approved by the Duma, two young political activists - Ilya Yashin, the youth leader of Yabloko and Maria Gaidar, the daughter of Yegor Gaidar, the former Russian PM - protested the bill by spending an hour and a half suspended on ropes from a Moscow bridge facing the Kremlin and flying a 10-meter banner, which said: “GIVE THE ELECTION BACK TO THE PEOPLE, BASTARDS!”
They were detained by the police and fined 500 rubles (about $20) by the court – a pittance compared to the sentence of Olga Kudrina in May 2006, a member of Eduard Limonov’s National Bolshevik Party, who was sentenced to three and a half years in prison for climbing the Rossiya Hotel and hanging a banner saying “Putin, go away on your own” on the side facing the Kremlin.

Ukraine's NATO Entry Will Complicate Ties With Russia - Ivanov

2006-12-07T10:48:00.000-05:00

Sergei Ivanov, the Russian defense minister, currently in Kiev for a session of the security subcommittee of the Russian-Ukrainian interstate commission, told journalists Ukraine has a sovereign right to join the Western security alliance, but that "the consequences of this move will have a negative impact on bilateral relations."

Abkhazia Rallies For Independence

2006-12-07T09:02:00.000-05:00

Thousands of people staged a rally calling for Abkhazia’s independence from Georgia yesterday, after The Abkhaz separatist president, Sergei Bagapsh, said the region would never be part of the same state as Georgia. Abkhasia is an autonomous republic of Georgia but which proclaimed independence after a civil war in the 1990’s. It has not been internationally recognized as a separate nation but it remains de facto independent from Georgia.

Russia maintains strong political, economical and military influence over Abkhasia, and during the Georgian civil war supported the Abkhasian separatists against the Georgia government. During the war, the Georgian majority that inhabited the Abkhaz region has been displaced, and today the Abkhaz population consists of en ethic mix of Russian (45%), Armenians, Georgians, Jews, and Greeks. The majority of the non-Georgian population holds Russian citizenship.

How I Was Poisoned And Why Russia's Political Enemies Were Surely Behind It

2006-12-07T08:04:00.000-05:00

In a commentary printed in The Financial Times, Yegor Gaidar, the former Russian PM, retells the story of his poisoning and offers a theory who may have been behind it. “Most likely […] some obvious or hidden adversaries of the Russian authorities stand behind the scenes of this event, those who are interested in further radical deterioration of relations between Russia and the west. Within several hours, comparing the dates of events that took place during the past six weeks, I formulated a rather logical and consistent hypothesis on the reasons behind this. The world view regains its intrinsic logic and ceases resembling a Kafkaesque nightmare. Still, it does not look any more enjoyable. Well, as they say in Russia, as long as we are alive, we might even be happy some day, but that is a different story.”

Another Russian Share Listing in London

2006-12-06T22:03:00.000-05:00

Russian property developer RGI International Ltd. joined the trend and announced late on Wednesday it planned to raise about $175 million (89 million pounds) after listing on London's Alternative Investment Market (part of the London Stock Exchange), according to Reuters. The company, which specialises in high-end office, retail and residential property in central Moscow, said the offer price had been set at $6 per share. As a result, the market capitalisation of RGI after the listing would be about $593 million.

This is just the last from a series of Russian IPO's in the last few years that culminated with the initial public offering of the shares of the Russian energy giant Rosneft that raised $10.4 billion making it the fifth largest IPO in the world. According to RIA Novosti economic commentator Nina Kulikova, Russian IPO's abroad (mostly in London) raised $5 billion in 2005 and are expected to raise $20 billion in 2006. While the interest is the highest in the commodities sector, other firms like RGI International Ltd. are starting to float their shares as well.

Azerbaijan Halts Oil Transfers Through Russia

2006-12-06T20:48:00.000-05:00

Azerbaijani Prime Minister Artur Rasulzade has announced that his country will be able to cover its energy needs starting Jan. 1, 2007 and will stop the transfer of Azeri oil through the Baku-Novorossisk pipeline. This is seen as a retaliatory measure following Gazprom's proposed increase of the price of Russian natural gas exported to Azerbaijan from $110 to $230 per 1,000 cubic meters.

On November 22, Gazprom announced new price levels for natural gas in an attempt to bring the prices it charges its ex-Soviet neighbors to European levels. These countries have previoulsy enjoyed preferential rates. This move was also seen by some as policial motivated and meant to punish its unruly neighbors, notably Georgia and Ukraine. In the case of Azerbaijan, its president Ilham Aliyev said on December 4: “It is clear that the price of $230 per 1,000 cubic meters suggested by Russia is very high for us. Therefore we have to consider different options. If need be, we should consider reducing the volume of oil being exported to Russia via the Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline in order to provide ourselves with electricity. We have no other choice because we use gas imported from Russia to produce electricity at our power plants.” Today Prime Minister Rasulzade announced Azerbaijan's intention to forgo Gazprom's deliveries and rely on its own reserves instead.

Azerbaijan's decision to not export oil through Russia via the Baku-Novorossiysk pipline is also an economic one. The transit tariff of $2.05 is exactly five times higher than on the shorter alternative route to the Black Sea, the Baku-Supsa pipeline that through Georgia.

This event marks the emergence of the first ex-Soviet country that is independent on Russian energy, notes Stratfor. Russian reaction remains to be seen, but it is unlikely that many others will follow in the near future.

Prosecution A Poweful Economic Weapon in Russia

2006-12-06T11:55:00.000-05:00

RIA Novosti reports that Russian prosecutors have discovered over 100 violations of environmental, migration and energy laws in the Sakhalin II energy project. The project has been long criticized by various environmental groups and Sakhalin residents for the alleged indifference of its operators (Shell, Mitsui and Mitsubishi) to environmental hazards that come with the complexity of the project in the extreme conditions of the Sakhalin Island. However, international observers attribute the last wave of governmental scrutiny to Russia’s pressure “to secure more favorable terms for state-controlled gas monopoly OAO Gazprom to join the project […] as the Kremlin is increasing its role in the lucrative energy sector.” In 2005, Shell increased the estimated cost of the project nearly two-fold to $22 billion dollars. However, this budget is yet to be approved by the Russian government which will only receive parts of the profit once the operators recoup their investment costs. Some observers note that Russia is not just trying to renegotiate the terms of the contract but that these charges are in effect an attempt to take over the control of the project and further consolidate the Russian natural resources in the hands of the state.

Timeline: Former Russian Spy Case

2006-12-06T11:10:00.000-05:00

It seems that the press finally milked the Litvinenko case to the fullest, so it’s time for a review. BBC presents a timeline of the Russian ex-spy case.

No B and R in BRIC

2006-12-05T14:01:00.000-05:00

On December 4, The Financial Times printed a comment by John Lloyd and Alex Turkeltaub titled “India and China are the only real Brics in the wall” (subscription required) arguing that “while the rise of China and India represents a real shift in the power balance, Russia and Brazil are marginal economies propped up by high commodity prices.” BRIC is the abbreviation for the four large emerging economies Brazil, Russia, India and China. Ironically, the next day, the already red-hot Russian stock market reached a new all-time high in spite of the negative publicity surrounding the poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko.

Damaged Relations Between Russia and the West

2006-12-05T10:43:00.000-05:00

The Litvinenko affair is damaging the relations between Russia and the UK, claims Sergei Lavrov. When we take a look at the headlines of mainstream Western periodicals, claims to the contrary by the British foreign ministry cannot be taken too seriously. The case is hurting the relations between Moscow and London, and Moscow and the West in general. For the first time in his presidency, Putin is facing a serious challenge to his authority and his management of Russia’s foreign relations. Not in his home country, of course, where the Litvinenko’s case is viewed mostly with indifference, but in the West where the fears of Russian threat that lay hidden for 15 years came alive over the two weeks.

This presents Putin with extraordinary difficulty because it strongly undermines his efforts to use the stick and carrot strategy to keep the West complacent about his rule in Russia. Until recently, he had been quite successful with his clever tactics of linking up with the West on some issues like the global war on terrorism and softly bullying his European neighbors with an ever subtle threat of their dependency on Russian natural resources. His tactics worked especially well in today’s world of constant geopolitical uncertainty, and Russia’s rise as an economic power riding high the recent boom of commodity prices. This maneuvering bought Putin the West’s relative silence on his questionable handling of the Chechen war, the de-facto renationalizing of Russia’s strategic industries, and the increasing consolidation of power in his hands.

It is ironic that none of these episodes have raised the level of controversy that Litvinenko’s poisoning did. But at the same time is understandable from the perspective of the Western public. Russia is far away from London, and the impact of its actions at home is not visible. Russia does not threaten the world with nuclear annihilation; while it disrupts the supply of natural gas to Ukraine and to Georgia, it is a reliable partner to the Western countries; and Western investors are earning millions on rising Russian stock market. An assassination of a British citizen (albeit of Russian origin) with a radioactive substance has changed the complacency. If this can happen to one of ours in Mayfair, can we really feel safe, people start thinking.

And while this episode on its own may not have accounted for more than a second page story in a second rate paper (the issue of Kremlin’s involvement is at best questionable), in combination with the events in Russia that may have been overlooked for the past years, it creates a combustible mix. Therefore, the hysteria in Western media is not only about Litvinenko and his horrible death. It is about the path that Russia has found itself on following Putin’s election in 2000. The attitude towards Russia in the West, as reflected in the media, is tilting fast, and Lavrov is right about the damage it has caused.

No Bilateral Extradition Treaty Between Russia and the UK

2006-12-05T07:13:00.000-05:00

The British intelligence forces claim that the Litvinenko poisoning was orchestrated by the FSB, The Times report. This “new” theory comes to light as a team of British investigators is in Russia following the trail of Polonium-210 that killed Litvinenko in London. The British team has probed the British embassy in Moscow where the British authorities interviewed two Russian businessmen regarding potential clues into the casefor any traces of radiation. The Russian authorities are not as cooperative as initially suggested, the CNN reports with a loud headline ("Spy death probe police 'thwarted'") and will not allow the British detectives to question Mikhail Trepashkin, a former FSB officer who has been jailed in 2003 for allegedly divulging state secrets. They will also not be able to question Andrei Lugovoi, a former FSB officer who met with Litvinenko in London, as he has been hospitalized for a second time to be tested for radioactive poisoning. However, as The Observer notes, even if the British authorities were able to establish who is guilty of poisoning the ex-spy Litvinenko, there is no guarantee that the person would ever serve jail time in the UK.
“There is no bilateral extradition treaty between Russia and the UK, and legislation passed by Russia to deal with one-off requests by European countries prohibits the extradition of its citizens. When signing up to the European convention on extradition in 1996, Russia granted itself an exemption in accordance with article 61 of the state's constitution, which says: ‘A Russian citizen cannot be sent beyond the borders of the Russian Federation or given to another state.’"

Everybody Has a Conspiracy Theory

2006-12-04T15:53:00.000-05:00

The number of conspiracy theories about the death of Alexander Litvinenko increases by the day. They come from a variety of sources and each party uses them to drive their own political agenda. The state media are blaming the London émigrés, the dissidents are blaming President Putin, the Western media are blaming the FSB, Zhirinovski is blaming foreign intervention. However, as The New York Times writes, conspiracy theories are easy to come about in Russia where the press freedom is severely restricted and the authorities have not been able (or willing? – another conspiracy theory) to shed light on a number of controversial cases plaguing the reputation of Russia and if the current Kremlin establishment.

What are all those Russians up to?

2006-12-04T14:18:00.000-05:00

TIME Magazine discusses the Russian minority in London.
“Why cold, damp London for a second home? Unlike the U.S., Britain doesn't generally tax the income of resident foreigners unless they bring it into the country. Compared with the rest of Europe, Britain is seen as a country free of red tape, where it's easy to start a business. It's thought to be safe and cultured and a great place to educate children. Plus it's just four hours by air from Moscow.”

UK spy probe police go to Russia

2006-12-04T10:16:00.000-05:00

As the British investigators have left for Russia to investigate the Litvinenko poisoning, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warns against politicizing of the case, BBC reports.

Financial Times: The Kremlin is killing Russia's rule of law

2006-12-04T09:51:00.000-05:00

We may never know whether Putin was actually responsible for the recent murders of Litvinenko and Politkovskaya. However, we know that they happened on his watch, while he firmly took hold of power in the Kremlin. And his claims that he restored the rule of law in Russia sound increasingly hollow. more…

When dragons dance with bears

2006-12-03T13:27:00.000-05:00

The Economists examines the relationship between the two neighboring powers, Russia and China. Following their own version of cold war that ended in 1989, their relations are at an all-time high. That has to do with their common stance on American foreign politics, as well as with China's growing hunger for natural resources, and Russia's need for cheap imported goods. However, as the article suggests these factors that make Russia and China ideal partners also make their alliance rather fragile. "[...] the interests now drawing them together contain the seeds of future competition, even conflict."

Toxic Avenger

2006-12-03T12:04:00.000-05:00

The Exile shows a view of Alexander Litvinenko that is different from the mainstream Western publications.

Russian Ex-Spy Lived in a World of Deceptions

2006-12-03T11:17:00.000-05:00

The New York Times retraces the steps of Alexander Litvinenko back to 1994 uncovering his special relationship with Boris Berezovsky, his spat with the FSB in the late 1990's and the last years of his life living among the large community of Russian emigres in London.